It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and once more when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
